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Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents

Nerilie J. Abram 1 Helen V. Mcgregor 2 Jessica E. Tierney 3 Michael N. Evans 4 Nicholas P. Mckay 5 Darrell S. Kaufman 5 Kaustubh J. Thirumalai 6 Belen Martrat 7 Hugues Goosse 8 Steven J. Phipps 9 Eric J. Steig 10 K. Halimeda Kilbourne 11 Casey P. Saenger 12 Jens Zinke 13 Jason A. Addison 14 Guillaume Leduc 15 Peter Graham Mortyn 16 Marit-Solveig A. Seidenkrantz 17 Marie-Alexandrine Sicre 18 Kandasamy L. Selvaraj 19 Helena L. Filipsson 20 Raphael Neukom 21 Joëlle Gergis 22 Mark A. J. Curran 23 Lucien von Gunten 24
Abstract : The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use postad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.
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Nerilie J. Abram, Helen V. Mcgregor, Jessica E. Tierney, Michael N. Evans, Nicholas P. Mckay, et al.. Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents. Nature, Nature Publishing Group, 2016, 536, pp.411 - 418. ⟨10.1038/nature19082⟩. ⟨hal-01457262⟩



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