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Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach

Abstract : This paper attempts to analyze the relationships between the ASEAN-5's business cycles. We examine the nature of business cycle synchronization trying to disentangle between intraregional and interregional synchronization by considering the important role of China, Japan and the US in synchronizing the activity within the ASEAN-5. We employ a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework in order to allow the degree of synchronization to fluctuate across the phases of the business cycles. We provide evidence that the signals contained in some regional and global leading business cycles can impact the ASEAN-5's business cycles.
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https://hal-amu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01463108
Contributor : Patrice Cacciuttolo <>
Submitted on : Thursday, February 9, 2017 - 1:41:47 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, August 5, 2020 - 3:11:32 AM

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  • HAL Id : hal-01463108, version 1

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Gilles Dufrénot, Benjamin Keddad. Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach. Economic Modelling, 2014, 42 (C), pp.186--197. ⟨hal-01463108⟩

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