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Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks

Giacomo Grassi 1, * Jo House 2 Werner A. Kurz 3 Alessandro Cescatti 1 Richard A. Houghton Glen P. Peters Maria J. Sanz Raul Abad Viñas 1 Ramdane Alkama 1 Almut Arneth Alberte Bondeau 4 Frank Dentener 1 Marianela Fader 5 Sandro Federici Pierre Friedlingstein Atul K. Jain Etsushi Kato 6 Charles D. Koven Donna Lee Julia E. M. S. Nabel Alexander A. Nassikas Lucia Perugini Simone Rossi 1 Stephen Sitch Nicolas Viovy 7, 8 Andy Wiltshire Sönke Zaehle
* Corresponding author
1 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
2 University of Bristol [Bristol]
3 NRCan - Natural Resources Canada
4 IMBE - Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale
5 German Federal Institute of Hydrology
6 The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE)
7 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
8 MOSAIC - Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales
LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] : DRF/LSCE
Abstract : Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement requires forest-based mitigation. Collective progress towards this goal will be assessed by the Paris Agreement’s Global stocktake. At present, there is a discrepancy of about 4 GtCO2 yr−1 in global anthropogenic net land-use emissions between global models (reflected in IPCC assessment reports) and aggregated national GHG inventories (under the UNFCCC). We show that a substantial part of this discrepancy (about 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1) can be explained by conceptual differences in anthropogenic forest sink estimation, related to the representation of environmental change impacts and the areas considered as managed. For a more credible tracking of collective progress under the Global stocktake, these conceptual differences between models and inventories need to be reconciled. We implement a new method of disaggregation of global land model results that allows greater comparability with GHG inventories. This provides a deeper understanding of model–inventory differences, allowing more transparent analysis of forest-based mitigation and facilitating a more accurate Global stocktake.
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Giacomo Grassi, Jo House, Werner A. Kurz, Alessandro Cescatti, Richard A. Houghton, et al.. Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks. Nature Climate Change, Nature Publishing Group, 2018, 8 (10), pp.914 - 920. ⟨10.1038/s41558-018-0283-x⟩. ⟨hal-01889256⟩

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