Total Factor Productivity in Advanced Countries: A Longterm Perspective
Résumé
Changes in GDP during the 20th century have been mainly driven by total factor productivity (TFP). This article synthesizes results from our research based on the long period (1890-2015) productivity database we have constructed. In particular, we aim to refine our TFP measure by including the contribution of the improved quality of factor inputs and technology diffusion to TFP growth in four developed areas or countries: the United States, the euro area, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Two types of factor quality are considered: the average level of education and the average age of equipment. Two technological shocks corresponding to two general purpose technologies are investigated: electricity and information and communication technologies (ICT). However, even after these adjustments, long-term patterns of TFP growth do not change, with two major waves appearing over the past century and much of TFP growth remaining unaccounted for by quality-adjusted factors of production and technology diffusion. Our estimates show that the productivity impact of the recent ICT wave remains much smaller than that from the electricity wave, and that the post-1973 and the most recent slowdowns in TFP growth are confirmed.