Bayesian inference for TIP curves: an application to child poverty in Germany

Edwin Fourrier-Nicolai (1) , Michel Lubrano (1, 2)

1 AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques
2 School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics

TIP curves are cumulative poverty gap curves used for representing the three different aspects of poverty: incidence, intensity and inequality. The paper provides Bayesian inference for TIP curves, linking their expression to a parametric representation of the income distribution using a mixture of log-normal densities. We treat specifically the question of zero-inflated income data and survey weights, which are two important issues in survey analysis. The advantage of the Bayesian approach is that it takes into account all the information contained in the sample and that it provides small sample credible intervals and tests for TIP dominance. We apply our methodology to evaluate the evolution of child poverty in Germany after 2002, providing thus an update the portrait of child poverty in Germany given in Corak et al. (Rev. Income Wealth 54(4), 547–571, 2008).

Mots clés: poverty; inequality; zero-inflatedmodel; mixture model; survey weights; Bayesian inference

Domaines: Economies et finances

Edwin Fourrier-Nicolai, Michel Lubrano. Bayesian inference for TIP curves: an application to child poverty in Germany. Journal of Economic Inequality, 2020, 18 (1), pp.91-111. ⟨10.1007/s10888-019-09426-6⟩. ⟨hal-02477216⟩