Exchange rate policy and external vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa: nominal, real or mixed targeting?

Fadia Al Hajj (1) , Gilles Dufrénot (2, 3) , Benjamin Keddad (4)

1 College of Business Administration
2 AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques
3 AMU - Aix Marseille Université
4 PSE - Paris School of Economics

This paper discusses the theoretical choice of exchange rate regimes in Sub-Saharan African countries that are facing external vulnerabilities. To reduce instability, policymakers choose among promoting external competitiveness using a real anchor, lowering the burden of foreign debt using a nominal anchor or using a policy mix of both anchors. We observe that these countries tend to adopt mixed anchor policies. We solve a state space model to explain the determinants of and the strategy behind this policy. We find that the mixed targeting policy is a two-step strategy: First, monetary authorities choose the degree of nominal exchange rate flexibility according to the velocity of money, trade openness, foreign debt, degree of exchange rate pass-through and exchange rate target zone. Second, authorities seek to stabilize the real exchange rate depending on the degree of competition in the domestic goods market and the degree of foreign exchange intervention. We conclude with regime-switching estimations to provide empirical evidence of how these economic fundamentals influence exchange rate policy in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Mots clés: Sub-Saharan Africa; exchange rate policy; external vulnerabilities; regime-switching model

Domaines: Economies et finances; Économie et finance quantitative [q-fin]

Fadia Al Hajj, Gilles Dufrénot, Benjamin Keddad. Exchange rate policy and external vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa: nominal, real or mixed targeting?. Applied Economics, 2021, 53 (3), pp.380-399. ⟨10.1080/00036846.2020.1808176⟩. ⟨hal-02935990⟩