Simulating the progression of the COVID-19 disease in Cameroon using SIR models

Ulrich Nguemdjo (1, 2) , Freeman Meno (3) , Audric Dongfack (4) , Bruno Ventelou (1)

1 AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques
2 LPED - Laboratoire Population-Environnement-Développement
3 Lycée Polyvalent Franklin Roosevelt
4 ECM - École Centrale de Marseille

This paper analyses the evolution of COVID-19 in Cameroon over the period March 6-April 2020 using SIR models. Specifically, we 1) evaluate the basic reproduction number of the virus, 2) determine the peak of the infection and the spread-out period of the disease, and 3) simulate the interventions of public health authorities. Data used in this study is obtained from the Cameroonian Public Health Ministry. The results suggest that over the identified period, the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Cameroon is about 1.5, and the peak of the infection should have occurred at the end of May 2020 with about 7.7% of the population infected. Furthermore, the implementation of efficient public health policies could help flatten the epidemic curve.

Mots clés: COVID 19; Public and occupational health; Cameroon; Infectious disease epidemiology; Respiratory infections; Viral evolution; Hygiene; Infectious disease control

Domaines: Economies et finances

Ulrich Nguemdjo, Freeman Meno, Audric Dongfack, Bruno Ventelou. Simulating the progression of the COVID-19 disease in Cameroon using SIR models. PLoS ONE, 2020, 15 (8), pp.e0237832. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0237832⟩. ⟨hal-02941632⟩