D. Aeschimann, N. Rasolofo, and J. P. Theurillat, Analyse de la flore des Alpes. 2: biodiversité et chorologie, Candollea, vol.66, issue.2, pp.225-253, 2011.

O. Allouche, A. Tsoar, and R. Kadmon, Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS), J Appl Ecol, vol.43, pp.1223-1232, 2006.

M. B. Araújo and M. New, Ensemble forecasting of species distributions, Trends Ecol Evol, vol.22, pp.42-47, 2007.

M. Barbet-massin, F. Jiguet, C. H. Albert, and W. Thuiller, Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models: how, where and how many?, Methods Ecol Evol, vol.3, pp.327-338, 2012.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02521347

C. Bellard, C. Bertelsmeier, P. Leadley, W. Thuiller, and F. Courchamp, Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity, Ecol Lett, vol.15, pp.365-377, 2012.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01359347

B. Benito, J. Lorite, and J. Peñas, Simulating potential effects of climatic warming on altitudinal patterns of key species in Mediterraneanalpine ecosystems, Clim Chang, vol.108, pp.471-483, 2011.

L. Breiman, Random forests, Mach Learn, vol.45, pp.5-32, 2001.

L. Breiman, J. Friedman, R. Ohlsen, C. Stone, O. Broennimann et al., Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?, Glob Chang Biol, vol.12, pp.1079-1093, 1984.

A. E. Cahill, M. E. Aiello-lammens, M. C. Fisher-reid, X. Hua, C. J. Karanewsky et al., How does climate change cause extinction?, Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, 2012.

Y. Cao, R. E. Dewalt, J. L. Robinson, T. Tweddale, L. Hinz et al., Using Maxent to model the historic distributions of stonefly species in Illinois streams: the effects of regularization and threshold selections, Ecol Model, vol.259, pp.30-39, 2013.

G. Casazza, G. Barberis, and L. Minuto, Ecological characteristics and rarity of endemic plants of the Italian Maritime Alps, Biol Conserv, vol.123, pp.361-371, 2005.

G. Casazza, E. Zappa, M. G. Mariotti, F. Médail, and L. Minuto, Ecological and historical factors affecting distribution pattern and richness of endemic plant species: the case of the Maritime and Ligurian Alps hotspot, Divers Distrib, vol.14, pp.47-58, 2008.

G. Casazza, P. Giordani, R. Benesperi, B. Foggi, D. Viciani et al., Climate change hastens the urgency of conservation for range-restricted plant species in the Central-Northern Mediterranean region, Biol Conserv, vol.179, pp.129-138, 2014.

G. Casazza, F. Grassi, G. Zecca, and L. Minuto, Phylogeographic insights into a peripheral refugium: the importance of cumulative effect of glaciation on the genetic structure of two endemic plants, PLoS One, vol.11, 2016.

I. C. Chen, L. Hill, R. Ohlemüller, D. B. Roy, and C. D. Thomas, Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming, Science, vol.333, issue.6045, pp.1024-1026, 2011.

J. Clavel, R. Julliard, and V. Devictor, Worldwide decline of specialist species: toward a global functional homogenization?, Front Ecol Environ, vol.9, pp.222-228, 2011.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02939446

O. Cotto, J. Wessely, D. Georges, G. Klonner, M. Schmi et al., A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming, Nat Commun, vol.8, p.15399, 2017.

T. Dirnböck, F. Essl, and W. Rabitsch, Disproportional risk for habitat loss of high-altitude endemic species under climate change, Glob Chang Biol, vol.17, pp.990-996, 2011.

S. Dolédec, D. Chessel, and C. Gimaret-carpentier, Niche separation in community analysis: a new method, Ecology, vol.81, pp.2914-2927, 2000.

S. Dray and A. B. Dufour, The ade4 package: implementing the duality diagram for ecologists, J Stat Softw, vol.22, issue.4, pp.1-20, 2007.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00434575

S. Dullinger, A. Gattringer, W. Thuiller, D. Moser, N. E. Zimmermann et al., Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change, Nat Clim Chang, vol.2, pp.619-622, 2012.

R. Engler, C. F. Randin, P. Vittoz, T. Czáka, M. Beniston et al., Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?, Ecography, vol.32, pp.34-45, 2009.

R. Engler, C. F. Randin, W. Thuiller, S. Dullinger, N. E. Zimmermann et al., ) 21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe, Glob Chang Biol, vol.17, pp.2330-2341, 2011.

F. Essl, M. Staudinger, O. Stöhr, L. Schratt-ehrendorfer, W. Rabitsch et al., Distribution patterns, range size and niche breadth of Austrian endemic plants, Biol Conserv, vol.142, issue.11, pp.2547-2558, 2009.

F. Essl, S. Dullinger, C. Plutzar, W. Willner, and W. Rabitsch, Imprints of glacial history and current environment on correlations between endemic plant and invertebrate species richness, J Biogeogr, vol.38, pp.604-614, 2011.

S. Fauquette, J. Suc, F. Médail, S. D. Muller, and G. Jiménez-moreno, The Alps: a geological, climatic, and human perspective on vegetation history and modern plant diversity, Mountains, climate, and biodiversity, pp.413-428, 2018.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01888883

E. A. Freeman and G. Moisen, PresenceAbsence: an R package for presence-absence model analysis, J Stat Softw, vol.23, issue.11, pp.1-31, 2008.

J. H. Friedman, Multivariate adaptive regression splines, Ann Stat, vol.19, pp.1-67, 1991.

K. J. Gaston, Species-range size distributions: products of speciation, extinction and transformation, Philos Trans R Soc Lond B, vol.353, pp.219-230, 1998.

M. Gottfried, H. Pauli, A. Futschik, M. Akhalkatsi, P. Baran?ok et al., Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change, Nat Clim Chang, vol.2, pp.111-115, 2012.

J. Guiot and W. Cramer, Climate change: the 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems, Science, vol.354, issue.6311, pp.465-468, 2016.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01586010

A. Guisan and N. E. Zimmermann, Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology, Ecol Model, vol.135, issue.00, pp.354-363, 2000.

A. Hamann, D. R. Roberts, Q. E. Barber, C. Carrol, and S. E. Nielsen, Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management, Glob Chang Biol, vol.21, pp.997-1004, 2015.

J. A. Hanley and B. J. Mcneil, The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Radiology, vol.143, pp.29-36, 1982.

S. Harrison and R. Noss, Endemism hotspots are linked to stable climatic refugia, Ann Bot, vol.119, pp.207-214, 2017.

R. J. Hijmans, S. Phillips, J. Leathwick, and J. Elith, dismo: species distribution modeling, 2017.

C. Hoorn, A. Perrigo, and A. Antonelli, 2018) Mountains, climate and biodiversity

M. Huss, B. Bookhagen, C. Huggel, D. Jacobsen, R. S. Bradley et al., Toward mountains without permanent snow and ice, Earth's Future, vol.5, pp.418-435, 2017.

G. Iucn-ssc, B. Jiménez-alfaro, L. García-calvo, P. García, and J. L. Acebes, IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) SSC (Species Survival Commission) (2013) IUCN guidelines for reintroductions and other conservation translocations, Biol Conserv, vol.201, pp.243-251, 2016.

D. N. Karger, O. Conrad, J. Böhner, T. Kawohl, H. Kreft et al., Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas, 2017.

D. N. Karger, O. Conrad, J. Böhner, T. Kawohl, H. Kreft et al., Data from: climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas, Dryad Digital Repository, 2017.

M. Kuussaari, R. Bommarco, R. K. Heikkinen, A. Helm, J. Krauss et al., Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation, Trends Ecol Evol, vol.24, pp.564-571, 2009.

J. H. Lawton, R. May, J. Lenoir, J. C. Gégout, P. A. Marquet et al., A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20 th century, Science, vol.320, issue.5884, pp.1768-1771, 1995.

C. Liu, P. M. Berry, T. P. Dawson, and R. G. Pearson, Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions, Ecography, vol.28, pp.385-393, 2005.

S. R. Loarie, B. E. Carter, K. Hayhoe, S. Mcmahon, R. Moe et al., Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora, PLoS One, vol.3, 2008.

S. R. Loarie, P. B. Duffy, H. Hamilton, G. P. Asner, C. B. Field et al., The velocity of climate change, Nature, vol.462, pp.1052-1057, 2009.

L. Maiorano, R. Cheddadi, N. E. Zimmermann, L. Pellissier, and B. Petitpierre, Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe, Global Ecol Biogeogr Special Issue, 2012.

J. R. Malcolm, A. Markham, R. P. Neilson, and M. Garaci, Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change, J Biogeogr, vol.29, pp.835-849, 2002.

S. Marazzi, Atlante orografico delle Alpi: SOIUSA: suddivisione orografica internazionale unificata del sistema alpino, Pavone Canadese (TO), 2005.

M. Marmion, M. Parviainen, M. Luoto, R. K. Heikkinen, and W. Thuiller, Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling, Divers Distrib, vol.15, issue.1, pp.59-69, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00377981

P. Mccullagh and J. A. Nelder, Generalized linear models, 1989.

F. Médail and K. Diadema, Glacial refugia influence plant diversity patterns in the Mediterranean Basin, J Biogeogr, vol.36, pp.1333-1345, 2009.

F. Médail and P. Quézel, Hot-spots analysis for conservation of plant biodiversity in the Mediterranean basin, Ann Mo Bot Gard, vol.84, pp.112-127, 1997.

C. Moritz and R. Agudo, The future of species under climate change: resilience or decline?, Science, vol.341, pp.504-508, 2013.

D. Nogués-bravo, M. B. Araújo, M. P. Errea, and J. P. Martínez-rica, Exposure of global mountain systems to climate warming during the 21st century, Glob Environ Chang, vol.17, pp.420-428, 2007.

W. A. Ozinga, C. Römermann, R. M. Bekker, A. Prinzing, W. Tamis et al., Dispersal failure contributes to plant losses in NW Europe, Ecol Lett, vol.12, pp.66-74, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00370863

C. Parmesan, C. Duarte, E. Poloczanska, A. J. Richardson, and M. C. Singer, Overstretching attribution, Nat Clim Chang, vol.1, issue.2-4, 2011.

H. Pauli, M. Gottfried, S. Dullinger, O. Abdaladze, and M. Akhalkatsi, Recent plant diversity changes on Europe's mountain summits, Science, vol.336, pp.353-355, 2012.

H. M. Pereira, P. W. Leadley, V. Proença, R. Alkemade, and J. Scharlemann, Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century, Science, vol.330, pp.1496-1501, 2010.

O. L. Petchey, M. Pontarp, T. M. Massie, S. Kéfi, A. Ozgul et al., The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants, Ecol Lett, vol.18, pp.597-611, 2015.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01938677

B. Petitpierre, O. Broennimann, C. Kueffer, C. Daehler, and A. Guisan, Selecting predictors to maximize the transferability of species distribution models: lessons from cross-continental plant invasions, Glob Ecol Biogeogr, vol.26, pp.275-287, 2017.

R. Prodon, J. C. Thibault, and P. A. Dejaifve, Expansion vs. compression of bird altitudinal ranges on a Mediterranean island, Ecology, vol.83, issue.5, pp.1294-1306, 2002.

. R-core-team, R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for statistical computing, 2017.

C. F. Randin, R. Engler, S. Normand, M. Zappa, N. E. Zimmermann et al., Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence, Glob Chang Biol, vol.15, pp.1557-1569, 2009.

G. Ridgeway, The state of boosting, Stat Comput, vol.31, pp.172-181, 1999.

S. B. Rumpf, K. Hülber, G. Klonner, D. Moser, M. Schütz et al., Range dynamics of mountain plants decrease with elevation, PNAS, vol.115, issue.8, pp.1848-1853, 2018.

B. Sandel, L. Arge, B. Dalsgaard, R. G. Davies, K. J. Gaston et al., The influence of Late Quaternary climate change velocity on species endemism, Science, vol.334, pp.660-664, 2011.

B. M. Sanderson, R. Knutti, and P. Caldwell, A representative democracy to reduce interdependency in a multimodel ensemble, J Clim, vol.28, pp.5171-5194, 2015.

D. F. Sax, R. Early, and J. Bellemare, Niche syndromes, species extinction risks, and management under climate change, Trends Ecol Evol, vol.28, pp.517-523, 2013.

M. W. Schwartz, L. R. Iverson, A. M. Prasad, S. N. Matthews, O. Connor et al., Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change, Ecology, vol.87, issue.7, p.87, 2006.

A. J. Sugitt, R. J. Wilson, N. Isaac, C. M. Beale, and A. G. Auffret, Extinction risk from climate change is reduced by microclimatic buffering, Nat Clim Chang, vol.8, pp.713-717, 2018.

C. D. Thomas, A. Cameron, R. E. Green, M. Bakkenes, and L. J. Beaumont, Extinction risk from climate change, Nature, vol.427, pp.145-148, 2004.

W. Thuiller, S. Lavorel, M. B. Araújo, M. T. Sykes, and P. Ic, Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, vol.102, pp.8245-8250, 2005.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00274241

W. Thuiller, S. Lavorel, and M. B. Araújo, Niche properties and geographical extent as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change, Glob Ecol Biogeogr, vol.14, pp.347-357, 2005.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00294543

W. Thuiller, G. F. Midgley, G. O. Hughes, B. Bomhard, G. Drew et al., Endemic species and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change in Namibia, Glob Chang Biol, vol.12, pp.759-776, 2006.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00293848

W. Thuiller, B. Lafourcade, R. Engler, and M. B. Araújo, BIOMOD -a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, Ecography, vol.32, pp.369-373, 2009.

K. Tielbörger, M. C. Bilton, J. Metz, J. Kigel, and C. Holzapfel, Middle-Eastern plant communities tolerate 9 years of drought in a multi-site climate manipulation experiment, Nat Commun, vol.5, p.5102, 2014.

M. R. Trivedi, P. M. Berry, M. D. Morecroft, T. P. Dawson, M. Sosef et al., Spatial scale affects bioclimate model projections of climate change impacts on mountain plants, Glob Chang Biol, vol.14, pp.542-552, 2008.

P. Vittoz and R. Engler, Seed dispersal distances: a typology based on dispersal modes and plant traits, Bot Helv, vol.117, pp.109-124, 2007.