Climate change: A driver of future conflicts in the Persian Gulf Region?

Abdolmajid Naderi Beni (1) , Nick Marriner (2) , Arash Sharifi (3) , Jafar Azizpour (1) , Keivan Kabiri (1) , Morteza Djamali (4) , Alan Kirman (5)

1 Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science(INIOAS), No. 3, Etemadzadeh St., Fatemi Ave., Tehran, Iran
2 ThéMA - Théoriser et modéliser pour aménager (UMR 6049)
3 BETA - Analytic-Isobar Science, Research and Development Department
4 IMBE - Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale
5 CAMS - Centre d'Analyse et de Mathématique sociales

Ongoing global change and its direct environmental impacts, in addition to securing economic transition to the post-oil era, could trigger complex socioeconomic and political crises in oil-dependent economies of the Persian Gulf Region (PGR). To evaluate the role of climate change and related policies in degrading the environment and its socioeconomic impacts in the PGR, we have used a variety of available global datasets and published data. The results show that the countries of the PGR pursue some types of socioeconomic reforms to alleviate the impacts of climate change. However, it seems that these attempts are not compatible with the environment's capacity. The main problem stems from the fact that political differences between the PGR nations prevent them from managing the Persian Gulf environment as an integrated natural system and consequently they have to limit their efforts within their borders, regardless of what happens in other parts of the system. The shift to alternative revenue sources by the countries needs socioeconomic preparedness while there are environmental obstacles, political tensions and geopolitical rivalries. Unless there is a cooperative approach to mitigate the effects of climate change, accompanied by a reorientation of PGR economies, the situation is likely to worsen rather than improve. To address the challenges of climate change, integrated regional collaborations are needed. Collective action, such as more investment in regional research and development and education, is required if the PGR is to successfully transition from a commodity-based to a knowledge-based economy.

Mots clés: Persian Gulf; Climate change; Economy; Environment; Water scarcity

Domaines: Sciences de l'environnement

Abdolmajid Naderi Beni, Nick Marriner, Arash Sharifi, Jafar Azizpour, Keivan Kabiri, et al.. Climate change: A driver of future conflicts in the Persian Gulf Region?. Heliyon, 2021, 7 (2), pp.e06288. ⟨10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06288⟩. ⟨hal-03209546⟩