Human perception and environmental risk index modelling with GIS in Yakutsk urban region (North-Eastern Siberia)
Résumé
One of the challenges of human security in the Arctic regions, and more specifically in the Eastern Siberian Arctic regions, concerns the assessment of inhabitants’ exposure to recurrent environmental risks for the urban population in a geophysical environment characterized by notable change dynamics. The latter is known as permafrost degradation, water flooding (river, geomorphologic canals, and plateau erosion flooding) and ice breakup, erosion, and forest fires. Urban centers and villages are confronted with a multiplicity of natural hazards. However, the evaluation of their exposure is partial or non-existent; hence there is the need to create indices of potential exposure to environmental risks. They are built by spatial analysis of survey data on the perception and knowledge of the local population and remote sensing that are integrated into Geographic Information Systems. Knowledge and understanding of how local people perceive the natural and anthropogenic environment in the context of climate change and its consequences are some of the key factors in creating effective urban planning strategies for the cities in the high-risk zones of environmental hazards. The urban region of Yakutsk is the test study area for the construction of these indicators of human security in the Siberian Russian Arctic. The large urban area with more than 350,000 people in one of the coldest regions in the world is confronted by the acceleration of global warming and urbanization on a recurrent and seasonal basis. This hazardous occurrence is combined with the risks of forest fires, erosion, floods, and permafrost degradation affecting infrastructures, settlements, industrial and agricultural areas.
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