Coding for Life: Designing a Platform for Projecting and Protecting Global Biodiversity

Mark C. Urban (1) , Justin M. J. Travis (2) , Damaris Zurell (3) , Patrick L. Thompson (4) , Nicholas W. Synes (2) , Alice Scarpa (2) , Pedro R. Peres-Neto (5) , Anne-Kathleen Malchow (6) , Patrick M. A. James (7) , Dominique Gravel (8) , Luc De Meester (9) , Calum Brown (10) , Greta Bocedi (2) , Cécile H. Albert (11) , Andrew Gonzalez (12) , Andrew P. Hendry (13)

1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
2 School of Biological Sciences [Aberdeen]
3 University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam
4 UBC - University of British Columbia
5 UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal
6 UFZ - Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
7 Institute of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Toronto, in Toronto, Canada
8 Canada Research Chair in integrative Ecology
9 KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven - Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
10 IMK-IFU, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
11 IMBE - Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale
12 McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]
13 Redpath Museum and Department of Biology

Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and nature's contributions to humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species and ecosystems are most at risk to ensure efficient use of limited conservation and management resources. We review existing biodiversity projection models and discover problematic gaps. Current models usually cannot easily be reconfigured for other species or systems, omit key biological processes, and cannot accommodate feedbacks with Earth system dynamics. To fill these gaps, we envision an adaptable, accessible, and universal biodiversity modeling platform that can project essential biodiversity variables, explore the implications of divergent socioeconomic scenarios, and compare conservation and management strategies. We design a roadmap for implementing this vision and demonstrate that building this biodiversity forecasting platform is possible and practical.

Keywords: biodiversity; forecasting; global change; modeling; mechanistic

Domains: Environmental Sciences

Mark C. Urban, Justin M. J. Travis, Damaris Zurell, Patrick L. Thompson, Nicholas W. Synes, et al.. Coding for Life: Designing a Platform for Projecting and Protecting Global Biodiversity. Bioscience, 2022, 72 (1), pp.91-104. ⟨10.1093/biosci/biab099⟩. ⟨hal-03426486⟩