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Evolution in pecunia

Abstract : The paper models evolution in pecunia—in the realm of finance. Financial markets are explored as evolving biological systems. Diverse investment strategies compete for the market capital invested in long-lived dividend-paying assets. Some strategies survive and some become extinct. The basis of our paper is that dividends are not exogenous but increase with the wealth invested in an asset, as is the case in a production economy. This might create a positive feedback loop in which more investment in some asset leads to higher dividends which in turn lead to higher investments. Nevertheless, we are able to identify a unique evolutionary stable investment strategy. The problem is studied in a framework combining stochastic dynamics and evolutionary game theory. The model proposed employs only objectively observable market data, in contrast with traditional settings relying upon unobservable investors’ characteristics (utilities and beliefs). Our method is analytical and based on mathematical reasoning. A numerical illustration of the main result is provided.
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Submitted on : Friday, February 25, 2022 - 2:50:05 PM
Last modification on : Friday, April 1, 2022 - 3:53:38 AM

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Rabah Amir, Igor Evstigneev, Thorsten Hens, Valeriya Potapova, Klaus Schenk-Hoppé. Evolution in pecunia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America , National Academy of Sciences, 2021, 118 (26), pp.e2016514118. ⟨10.1073/pnas.2016514118⟩. ⟨hal-03589215⟩

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