The Love for Children Hypothesis and the Multiplicity of Fertility Rates

Paolo Melindi Ghidi (1, 2) , Thomas Seegmuller (2)

1 BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée
2 GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille

As illustrated by some French departments, how can we explain the existence of equilibria with different fertility and growth rates in economies with the same fundamentals, preferences, technologies and initial conditions? To answer this question we develop an endogenous growth model with altruism and love for children. We show that independently from the type of altruism, a multiplicity of equilibria might emerge if the degree of love for children is high enough. We refer to this condition as the love for children hypothesis. Then, the fertility rate is determined by expectations on the future growth rate and the dynamics are not path-dependent. Our model is able to reproduce different fertility behaviours in a context of completed demographic transition independently from fundamentals, preferences, technologies and initial conditions.

Mots clés: Love for children; Expectations; Fertility; Endogenous growth; Balanced growth path

Domaines: Economies et finances

Paolo Melindi Ghidi, Thomas Seegmuller. The Love for Children Hypothesis and the Multiplicity of Fertility Rates. 2017. ⟨halshs-01498173⟩