A physical baseline to model photovoltaic and wind farm development and estimate net production
Résumé
Photovoltaic and wind production dynamics are usually modeled using a sigmoïd or S-curve function, without physical bases. This paper aims at developing a physical model based on energy conservation and ERoEI definition, that could reproduce a S-curve function and allow to investigate the net energy delivered by photovoltaic and wind industries. This approach gives some new insights on the discussion on energy delivered by renewable and low carbon energy, as it highlights the role of energy re-investment in ERoEI calculation and explains why the classic relationship between net and gross energy, that is a ratio equal to (ERoEI-1)/ERoEI, does not apply to low carbon energy industries before they reach a steady-state or a quasi-static evolution. It also suggests that net photovoltaic production is still close to zero whereas wind production began to produce a net substantial energy around 2007-2010. It finally allows to investigate energy policies that could lead to a smooth energy transition and to compare the ability of different low carbon technologies to ensure such transition.
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