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A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process

Gilles Dufrénot 1, 2, 3, 4 Adelya Ospanova 4, 3 Alain Sand-Zantman 5
1 Centre de recherche de la Banque de France
2 CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales
3 GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille
4 DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale
5 GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique
Abstract : This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a market economy. The policy simulation potential of the model is illustrated by five types of simulations: interest rate shocks, foreign direct investment shocks, world oil price shocks, foreign demand shocks and nominal wages shocks. These sets of simulations show the importance of foreign direct investments in terms of theirs global positive effect, as well as the demand effect of an increase in the wages. We also find that effect of the tight monetary policy is not unambiguous; we argue that in some cases it is not the most efficient policy instrument to sustain the economy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014
Keywords : Transition economies Kazakhstan Macroeconomic stabilization Central Asian CIS countries
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https://hal-amu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01463114
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Submitted on : Thursday, February 9, 2017 - 1:42:01 PM
Last modification on : Friday, October 22, 2021 - 3:30:06 AM

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UNIV-AMU | GREQAM | CNRS | EHESS | EC-MARSEILLE | ENS-LYON | GATE | UNIV-ST-ETIENNE | GATE-MFH | UNIV-LYON1 | AMSE | UNIV-LYON2 | UDL

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Gilles Dufrénot, Adelya Ospanova, Alain Sand-Zantman. A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process. Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer Verlag, 2014, 47 (1), pp. 1-39. ⟨10.1007/s10644-012-9126-3⟩. ⟨hal-01463114⟩

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