Conflict in times of COVID-19

Nicolas Berman (1) , Mathieu Couttenier (2, 3, 4) , Nathalie Monnet (5) , Rohit Ticku (6)

1 AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques
2 ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon
3 CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research
4 GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne
5 Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement - Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies [Geneva, Switzerland]
6 Institute for the Study of Religion, Economics and Society, Chapman University

This chapter discusses the potential impacts of the spread of COVID-19, and the restriction policies that it has triggered in many countries, on conflict incidence worldwide. Based on anecdotal evidence and recent research, we argue that imposing nation-wide shutdown policies diminishes conflict incidence on average, but that this conflict reduction may be short-lived and highly heterogeneous across countries. In particular, conflict does not appear to decline in poor, fractionalised countries. Evidence points to two potential ways in which COVID-related restriction policies may increase conflict: losses in income and magnified ethnic and religious tensions leading to scapegoating of minorities.

Domaines: Economies et finances

Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier, Nathalie Monnet, Rohit Ticku. Conflict in times of COVID-19. Simeon Djankov; Ugo Panizza. COVID-19 in Developing Economie, CEPR Press, pp.147-156, 2020, 978-1-912179-35-0. ⟨hal-02877564⟩