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Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Connor Nolan 1 Jonathan T. Overpeck 1 Judy R. M. Allen 2 Patricia M. Anderson Julio L. Betancourt Heather A. Binney 3 Simon Brewer 4 Mark M. Bush Brian Chase 5 Rachid Cheddadi 5 Morteza Djamali 6 John Dodson Mary E. Edwards William D. Gosling Simon Haberle 7 Sara Hotchkiss Brian Huntley Sarah J. Ivory A. Peter Kershaw Soo-Hyun Kim Claudio Latorre Michelle Leydet 6 Anne-Marie Lézine 8 Kam-Biu Liu Yao Liu Anatoly V. Lozhkin Matt Mcglone Robert Marchant 9 Arata Momohara Patricio I. Moreno Stefanie Müller 10 Bette L. Otto-Bliesner 11 Caiming Shen Janelle Stevenson Hikaru Takahara Pavel E. Tarasov 10 John Tipton Annie Vincens 12 Chengyu Weng Qinghai Xu 13 Zhuo Zheng 14 Stephen T. Jackson 15, *
Abstract : Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.
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Submitted on : Monday, September 10, 2018 - 9:55:54 AM
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Connor Nolan, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Judy R. M. Allen, Patricia M. Anderson, Julio L. Betancourt, et al.. Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2018, 361 (6405), pp.920-923. ⟨10.1126/science.aan5360⟩. ⟨hal-01870934⟩

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